For years, perovskite solar cells have been the Next Big Thing in solar. Joel Jean, co-founder and CEO of Swift Solar, explains what exactly perovskites are, the performance and weight advantages they promise, the challenges they face, and when they might actually reach market.
The vital cost per watt discussion was fuzzy. Basically, Jean said that once perovskite gets over the developmental and scaling humps, IF it does, at best it will equal straight Si in cost/watt and durability in a trad panel. For new installs, in the sunny parts of the world where solar is already cost-effective, this is not a compelling market opening. At best it is only a chance to join a near-commodity mkt where margins, assuming sufficient competition, will be small and one imagines that legacy factories will find ways to continue lowering their prices, especially to the numerous budget-constrained customers for whom the total cost of purchase, not efficiency, is the binding consideration. So I think this means that the major Perovskite market opportunities going forward will be devices and locations where solar is almost but not quite cost-effective at current conversion efficiencies, due to weather or form-factor limitations, and mega-installations with large sunk capital infrastructure and grid access where a significant but not huge increase in conversion efficiency might be cost effective. These are not trivial opportunities but neither are they planet-saving.
Agreed with everyone below, this is an excellent discussion. I'd heard a good amount about perovskite like everyone else - tuning, efficiency, etc - but this podcast really helped elucidate what's actually going on. While Joel made a great point about tandem being the best chance at quick commercialization, I remain really excited about more "sci-fi" aspects like single layer perovskite on glass. Imagining that on the windows of every apartment or something like that is really fun to think about!
Thank you, this is excellent, both the podcast and the development itself.
I'm curious if there's any thought going into bifacial perovskite panels that might increase install options that reduce heat wear and advance solar more broadly after listening to Undecided's "Have we been doing Solar wrong all along?" (the answer to the title's question is no, but it takes a fresh look at the math and side benefits of changing install orientation with bifacial panels).
Well done podcast, David. Should be an example in a lesson plan for podcasting. Good direct questions and dialog. Recently I've listened to some other podcast interviews on new energy tech subjects, where the podcaster either didn't prepare or prattled on with long question/statements of their own preconceived notions instead of drawing out informative answers from the expert guest.
The talk of lab scale and research on wavelengths reminded me of when my Dad got me into Bell Labs in NJ to visit a solar lab in about 1980 where they were messing with prisms to split reflected sunlight onto different two inch cells to maximize output; probably to 5% each or something. Now we have Gemini Solar projects with eight square miles.
The interview made me more hopeful on perovskites. My skeptical self has been saying it's always going to be an NREL/grad student research project. And besides solar PV is pretty much good enough now. But if they can be made durable and we jump to 30%+ efficient cells, that's worthy of some worldwide celebration, or at least a Nobel prize.
Thanks David. When too much reporting on these important technologies and their progress seems to rely on press releases it is gratifying to have you interview insiders and get answers to some of the questions those releases never seem to answer. And thank you Joel for participating.
Good episode. After listening to this, I suggest the following episode of the Clean Power Hour, also released, today. Guest is Scott Graybeal, CEO of Caelux. They have a pilot project scheduled for this year, and see a path to production by early 2025. He provides a more clear view of where they are and what they're making.
Hell yeah! I've had a Google News alert about perovskite solar cells for many years and today is the first time I feel like I understand something about them. Looking forward to residential solar panels that are light enough to drive down soft costs, and so efficient it won't matter that Arizona Public Service lies with every breath in an effort to prevent distributed energy.
The vital cost per watt discussion was fuzzy. Basically, Jean said that once perovskite gets over the developmental and scaling humps, IF it does, at best it will equal straight Si in cost/watt and durability in a trad panel. For new installs, in the sunny parts of the world where solar is already cost-effective, this is not a compelling market opening. At best it is only a chance to join a near-commodity mkt where margins, assuming sufficient competition, will be small and one imagines that legacy factories will find ways to continue lowering their prices, especially to the numerous budget-constrained customers for whom the total cost of purchase, not efficiency, is the binding consideration. So I think this means that the major Perovskite market opportunities going forward will be devices and locations where solar is almost but not quite cost-effective at current conversion efficiencies, due to weather or form-factor limitations, and mega-installations with large sunk capital infrastructure and grid access where a significant but not huge increase in conversion efficiency might be cost effective. These are not trivial opportunities but neither are they planet-saving.
Agreed with everyone below, this is an excellent discussion. I'd heard a good amount about perovskite like everyone else - tuning, efficiency, etc - but this podcast really helped elucidate what's actually going on. While Joel made a great point about tandem being the best chance at quick commercialization, I remain really excited about more "sci-fi" aspects like single layer perovskite on glass. Imagining that on the windows of every apartment or something like that is really fun to think about!
Thank you, this is excellent, both the podcast and the development itself.
I'm curious if there's any thought going into bifacial perovskite panels that might increase install options that reduce heat wear and advance solar more broadly after listening to Undecided's "Have we been doing Solar wrong all along?" (the answer to the title's question is no, but it takes a fresh look at the math and side benefits of changing install orientation with bifacial panels).
https://undecidedmf.com/have-we-been-doing-solar-wrong-all-along/
Well done podcast, David. Should be an example in a lesson plan for podcasting. Good direct questions and dialog. Recently I've listened to some other podcast interviews on new energy tech subjects, where the podcaster either didn't prepare or prattled on with long question/statements of their own preconceived notions instead of drawing out informative answers from the expert guest.
The talk of lab scale and research on wavelengths reminded me of when my Dad got me into Bell Labs in NJ to visit a solar lab in about 1980 where they were messing with prisms to split reflected sunlight onto different two inch cells to maximize output; probably to 5% each or something. Now we have Gemini Solar projects with eight square miles.
The interview made me more hopeful on perovskites. My skeptical self has been saying it's always going to be an NREL/grad student research project. And besides solar PV is pretty much good enough now. But if they can be made durable and we jump to 30%+ efficient cells, that's worthy of some worldwide celebration, or at least a Nobel prize.
Thanks David. When too much reporting on these important technologies and their progress seems to rely on press releases it is gratifying to have you interview insiders and get answers to some of the questions those releases never seem to answer. And thank you Joel for participating.
Good episode. After listening to this, I suggest the following episode of the Clean Power Hour, also released, today. Guest is Scott Graybeal, CEO of Caelux. They have a pilot project scheduled for this year, and see a path to production by early 2025. He provides a more clear view of where they are and what they're making.
https://www.cleanpowerhour.com/how-perovskite-technology-is-reshaping-the-solar-industry-with-scott-graybeal-ep223/
Hell yeah! I've had a Google News alert about perovskite solar cells for many years and today is the first time I feel like I understand something about them. Looking forward to residential solar panels that are light enough to drive down soft costs, and so efficient it won't matter that Arizona Public Service lies with every breath in an effort to prevent distributed energy.