In this episode, I explore the political landscape of Pennsylvania with state Rep. Leanne Krueger. We discuss the state's nail-biting elections, the outsized political presence of fracking, and the uphill battle for clean energy legislation in a divided legislature. Krueger provides a boots-on-the-ground perspective on climate and energy politics in this key swing state.
Text transcript:
David Roberts
Hello, everyone. This is Volts for October 2, 2024, "A closer look at Pennsylvania, the swingiest of swing states." Kamala Harris is almost certainly going to win the popular vote in the United States, but because of America's very special, not-at-all-anachronistic-or-racist system of government, that doesn't necessarily mean she will take power. Instead, the winner will be determined by the Electoral College, and because most states are either solidly red or solidly blue, the result will actually come down to voting in a tiny handful of so-called swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Because of this daft system, these swing states are effectively the only states in which presidential campaigns matter or even take place in any meaningful sense. And the preferences and dispositions of the citizens of these states are the only ones that candidates truly care about. All the rest of us, whether we like it or not, are on the outside looking in. We all have a stake in understanding these swing states.
If there is one swing state to rule them all — one that is truly make or break for Harris — it is Pennsylvania. If you follow US politics at all, you will hear Pennsylvania over and over, intoned like an enchantment, typically discussed as a kind of magical talisman to ward off evil.
But I got curious. What do politics really feel like in the state? What issues really matter? Do climate change and clean energy ever pop up? Or is it all fossil fuel jobs all the time? To dig into all this and more, I am talking to state Rep. Leanne Krueger, a Democrat who has coordinated caucus efforts to hang on to Dems' narrow majority in the state House and rustle up Electoral College votes for Harris. It was a fun, educational, and completely nerve-wracking conversation. Enjoy. All right then, with no further ado, Leanne Krueger, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.
Leanne Krueger
Thank you so much. I'm excited to be here.
David Roberts
I'm so excited to dive into Pennsylvania. As you can imagine, all of us who are following the elections hear a lot about Pennsylvania. It comes up a lot in these discussions. So, I kind of just wanted to dive in and get a better sense of Pennsylvania and what's going on and what are the sort of relevant issues and dynamics and things like that. So, it's a little bit less of a black box, you know, like those of us who aren't in the swing states are kind of looking at the swing states, just with our hands clasped, sweating, wondering what's going on.
So, I'm hoping we can decode some of that stuff. So first, let's just start with Pennsylvania as a political entity. I was reading around a little bit, and, like, when they say it's a swing state, they are really not kidding. It is really a mix. So you've got this Democratic governor, you got a Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, and have had a Democratic governor going back into the nineties. So statewide, there appears to be a lot of support for Democrats. Then you have a state senate that has been controlled by Republicans, again, going all the way back into the nineties, and a state house that has mostly been controlled by Republicans going all the way back into the nineties until 2022, at which point you won your one-seat majority.
Leanne Krueger
By 63 votes.
David Roberts
63 votes!
Leanne Krueger
We flipped the House. The final race to be called in November 2022 was a race in suburban Philadelphia, in Montgomery County, where Missy Serrato beat the Republican incumbent, Todd Stevens, by 63 votes. And that flipped control of the House.
David Roberts
Amazing. And then, since then, like, you've had a couple of retirements. So, technically, now —
Leanne Krueger
Ten special elections, the most recent, 9th and 10th, were just in Philadelphia this Tuesday. Those members get sworn in Monday. So, two of those special elections were Republican holds in districts where we couldn't really compete. So, we've essentially won the majority eight times in the last two years since we flipped the House in November of 2022. So, it's been a bit of a wild ride for those of us on the ground here in the Pennsylvania State House.
David Roberts
Yeah, it's just like one seat just going back and forth. So, at this exact moment, there are literally more Democrats operating in the House than Republicans.
Leanne Krueger
Well, there will be when our two newest members are sworn in on Monday.
David Roberts
Okay. And then, Pennsylvania's electoral votes have generally gone to Democrats again, going all the way back to the nineties, with the notable exception of 2016.
Leanne Krueger
When Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by just about 16,000 votes.
David Roberts
Wow. Wow.
Leanne Krueger
So, less than 1% of the vote.
David Roberts
And now, polls — there's just some new polling out of Pennsylvania. Everybody was all a flutter about it the other day. Now, polls are out, and it looks like Harris is ahead. It's a bit of a squeaker, but sort of ahead, roughly at the same margin that Obama beat Romney. Kind of thing, like five-ish points.
Leanne Krueger
That's a little higher than what I've seen. All of the polls that I have seen, and I see a lot as a member of the House majority leadership team, essentially, the race is tied in Pennsylvania. Harris has been up slightly, but it's all within the margin of error. And so, we are looking at a tied presidential race in the battleground of the battleground, and everyone who is anyone has made a pass through. You know, there are surrogates coming left and right. In 2020, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes. And in my county, Delaware County, we put up an 88,000 vote margin.
So, we take very seriously the responsibility of electing the next president. And we are all out knocking on doors, talking to voters, raising money, and doing everything we can to let people know what's at stake this year.
David Roberts
I just have to assume that, like, if you're a resident of Pennsylvania, I mean, has every single resident of Pennsylvania been visited by a politician at this point? Like, it's so insanely important. Is anyone in Pennsylvania free of this?
Leanne Krueger
Well, I talked to an undecided voter last week when I was out knocking on doors.
David Roberts
Odd.
Leanne Krueger
The polling in Pennsylvania has showed that the undecided voter group for the presidential is about 3%, which is not a very big amount of people. And so the Harris campaign and then those of us running in other races are all knocking what are called persuasion doors. So when I'm out knocking on doors, and I'm doing this a couple times a week because I'm nervous myself, we are talking to Republicans, we're talking to independents, and every once in a while, we're talking to a Democrat who may not vote in every election. And you would be surprised, David, at the number of people who are either still undecided or not quite sure if they're going to vote.
And so, yes, the people's doors are being knocked on. I was knocking in a neighborhood in my legislative district last week where I saw two lit pieces at the door from a Trump and McCormick affiliated super PAC. Then I saw two lit pieces from a progressive group that was knocking for the top of the ticket. Then I was out knocking for myself and the Democrats on the ballot, and mailboxes were stuffed with political mail at the same time.
David Roberts
I know there's just something a little crazy-making about it. Looking on from the outside, it seems like these are the people who, like everything, the entire nation, the fate of a nation is coming down to this tiny handful of people who are sort of definitionally, like, the least engaged, like, have done the least reading. Like, at this point, if you're still undecided, it's just like, I don't even know. I don't even know how to put myself into that headspace at all. I wouldn't even know how to talk to those people, although I guess you're good at it at this point.
Leanne Krueger
Sometimes, well, I won my first election nine years ago by knocking on doors with a 786 vote margin.
David Roberts
Good grief.
Leanne Krueger
In 2016, my first reelection, Donald Trump came to my district twice, and I won by 597 votes, out of 65,000 voters. So, I've essentially been knocking on doors here for the last decade, both for myself and every time we've had a special election to make sure that we hold the majority. I've been out for those folks, too. Sometimes, an undecided voter is undecided about whether they're even going to vote. So, we can have a conversation about how we flip the House by 63 votes. Here in Delaware County, we had a mayor's race decided by two votes.
And in Montgomery County, there was a race last year decided by a coin toss because it was statistically tied. That seems to get people's attention. Sometimes people say they're undecided, but I think they just don't want to disclose who they decided to vote for.
David Roberts
Pennsylvania has also elected two Democratic senators, Bob Casey and Fetterman. Casey's up for reelection this year against Republican challenger Dave McCormick. And, of course, that Senate race, you know, is super, super vital to the future of everything. I mean, just like, I think listeners can get a sense just going down and listening to this, I feel like it just must be incredibly tense to be in politics in Pennsylvania. The world's fate is in the balance, and everything is coming down to these tiny handfuls of votes. You must just feel like anything you do could, like, save the world or destroy it.
Like, how do you maintain your equilibrium through this?
Leanne Krueger
Well, I will tell you that I was not on blood pressure medicine before I was elected to the Pennsylvania legislature, but I am now. And every time I see my doctor, she asks, "Is it worth it?" And I said, "Well, what do you think?" And she said, "Yes, keep doing what you're doing."
David Roberts
The fate of the world is on the line. Yes, it's worth it.
Leanne Krueger
But it does feel that way. And again, especially for those of us in the House who have literally needed to make it through ten special elections in the last two years.
David Roberts
Oh, God.
Leanne Krueger
And I spent four and a half years running our House Democratic campaign committee. So, I led the effort to flip the house. I was in that role in 2020 when polling said we were going to have one outcome, and the reality was very, very different. I was in that role in 2022 when we won the House by 63 votes in Montgomery County. And I was in that role through the first four special elections, including the one that we thought would be closest, where our candidate wound up winning by 20 points after we did everything we could to turn out the vote.
So, it has been a wild ride for us here in Pennsylvania. Looking at this November, I have to tell you, it really does feel like an existential issue. You know, the two sides at the top of the ticket and frankly, the two policy agendas of what we have been able to advance as a House majority, House Democratic majority, versus the horrible things that I fought for eight years before we got here feels existential, too. And so, yes, most folks in Pennsylvania who are plugged into politics feel a heightened sense of responsibility. And I'm telling everybody to make sure they're getting their exercise, their vitamins, and whatever they need to do for self-care to keep themselves going through the next six weeks.
David Roberts
Yeah, gotta leave it all in the field. So, just like stepping back and looking at this, like I said, I understood sort of intellectually that Pennsylvania is a swing state, but this is just like, I mean, it's absurd. It's a Democratic governor, Democratic senators, Republican Senate, mostly Republican House, now Democratic house. It's really right down the middle. Is there any sort of explanation for that? Is it just sort of like the demographics of the state sort of just kind of work out this way, that it's so half and half?
Or is there something about Pennsylvania voters? Like, what's — Pennsylvania voters, are they self-conscious about the fact that they're in this kind of poll position?
Leanne Krueger
So, Pennsylvania is definitely a swing state. It's definitely a purple state. There's incredible political diversity as you go across the 67 counties here. I'm in the Philadelphia suburbs in Delaware County. And the Philadelphia suburbs are what made up President Biden's win margin in 2020. We have a lot of voters here that, frankly, woke up after 2016. My county had been held by the Republicans since the Civil War, and we flipped it in 2019.
David Roberts
Whoa.
Leanne Krueger
Chester County, right next to us, was also red, and that flipped in 2019. And Bucks County was red and flipped in 2019. So those are the three suburban counties around Philadelphia. Montgomery County, where Governor Josh Shapiro is from, was already blue. And so, you've got a cluster of voters that care about climate issues. They care about choice, they care about public education. Then you've got blue pockets in the middle. So there's a few counties up in northeastern Pennsylvania that tend to vote blue. You've got Dauphin County, where the state capital is in Harrisburg, that flipped to blue just last year in the local races.
And then you've got Allegheny County, where Pittsburgh is. And outside of those areas, there's a lot of deep red counties.
David Roberts
Very familiar situation. Sort of like the Democrats are clustered basically in cities and the surrounding suburbs.
Leanne Krueger
All of our pickups have been in suburban districts.
David Roberts
Right. Are these suburban women who are responsible for this flip? Because that's kind of the story, you know, that's kind of the narrative.
Leanne Krueger
Suburban women are very much a part of it. And in fact, when Donald Trump was elected, we had no women in Congress, and now we've got five. Four of them came in in 2018, and then another one came in the last cycle. So, yes, women have come out to vote, but I think communities of color have been very mobilized. And historically, black women are the most reliable voters for the Democratic Party. We can't discount them and their importance. And then, you know, you've got folks who could go one way or another, white men are leaning towards Trump, except if you get college-educated men, then maybe they're with Harris.
Both sides are fighting hard for Hispanic voters right now. And then, as I'm out knocking on doors, I keep meeting folks who are registered Republicans who would probably show up as super voters. I'm looking for someone else in their household, not them, but they are so fed up with Donald Trump that they're voting for all Democrats this year.
David Roberts
Oh, interesting.
Leanne Krueger
We wouldn't know that unless we had actually knocked on their door. So, our electorate, I would say, our economy, and even sort of the racial and ethnic makeup of Pennsylvania are incredibly diverse. And so, I think what you're seeing is a result of all of those demographics.
David Roberts
Yeah, it's wild. So then, in the context of this, I feel like you have been, like, trudging through high winds for five years, probably have trouble concentrating on anything else other than just kind of surviving and trying to keep your majority. But let's talk a little bit about climate and energy and how they play out in this state. And so the first obvious question, and, like, when I put on Twitter that I was going to talk to you, everybody comes back with this question: fracking, fracking, fracking. It seems like a huge deal, especially sort of, like, for people outside the state who are kind of looking in and trying to figure out what's going on.
I think they are gripped by the idea that there's this grassroots love, deep love of fracking, and that Harris is treading on landmines unless she changes her position on fracking from 2020. But then you go and look at the numbers, the statistics, and, like, I saw one estimate that fracking directly and indirectly employs something like 20,000 Pennsylvanians, which is about 0.3% of Pennsylvania jobs. So, I can't figure out why it's such a big deal. So maybe, can you just help us decode the sort of political valence of fracking and kind of the role it's playing?
Leanne Krueger
Sure. Well, I do want to say that I don't think there's much that the President of the United States can do about fracking in Pennsylvania.
David Roberts
Well, I mean, this is hilarious. I'm sorry, but, like, this is what drives me crazy, Leanne. The president cannot ban fracking. The whole thing, the whole discussion, is this La La Land. There is no such policy. There's like, it's a private industry on private land. There's nothing the president can do about it. The whole thing is just symbolism. Right. Symbolism upon symbolism. But, I'm sorry I interrupted. Go ahead.
Leanne Krueger
No, I think you're right. And, you know, I watched the last presidential debate, and I think that there are folks who are very much trying to trip up Harris on this issue. I thought she did a pretty good job of navigating through it. But at the end of the day, these are policies that are decided by our state legislature and, again, not by the federal government. So, let's just leave that right there. Whoever the next president is, I think it will affect a lot of issues that I care about, but I don't think it will have any impact on fracking.
David Roberts
That's hilarious.
Leanne Krueger
Just put that aside. But remember, Pennsylvania has a long energy-producing history. Coal mines, entire generations of people were employed in coal mines, and those were union jobs with good benefits and good paying wages that you could get without a college degree. You know, there are still coal mines operating in some places in Pennsylvania, but many of them have closed. And those are the same places where fracking came in. And we are a gas-producing state. It is a large industry. We're one of the top producers in the country. Depends on which metrics you look at. We may be the top.
David Roberts
Second largest is what I saw after Texas.
Leanne Krueger
Yeah, I mean, there are a couple of different ways to measure it, but we're definitely towards the top. And so, for some communities, these were the jobs that came in to replace the coal mines, and they're really the only opportunity people have. And, David, I've got an MBA in economic development, so when I think about jobs, you look at the direct jobs, which are the people employed by the industry. But then you look at the indirect jobs and indirect jobs in fracking are the folks in the building trades who go in and build the infrastructure. And in some places, like the cracker plant in Beaver County, go in when maintenance needs to be done.
In Delaware County, we've got a refinery, Monroe Refinery, that goes through a shutdown process. Literally, thousands of building trades workers come in. So, I think the job impact is actually probably a lot larger than 20,000. But these are jobs that replaced coal mining jobs that I believe that coal mines were sort of pushed out of relevance because fracking produced cheaper energy. Then, we have a legislature that decided policies a number of governors ago, before I was in the legislature. However, any attempt to make changes in the nine years that I've been here hasn't been very successful.
It is currently legal for fracking companies to use their wastewater and spread it on roads to prevent icing. I sat through multiple hearings when I was on the Environmental Resources and Energy Committee and learned that there is truly radioactive material in this.
David Roberts
Yeah, the wastewater is the whole problem. Like environmentally, that is the whole issue.
Leanne Krueger
There have been attempts to prevent that from being used to de-ice roads, but even those have not been successful yet. The reality is, we have rural Democrats in these energy-producing districts, and we've got rural Republicans. Now, in southeastern Pennsylvania and in places like the city of Pittsburgh — although fracking comes much closer to Pittsburgh than it does to Philadelphia — we've got folks who are very concerned about the public health impacts and who are concerned about clean air and clean water. There was just a town meeting in western Pennsylvania where there's a project being proposed very close to a school.
And my understanding is that a whole lot of suburban moms showed up because they were concerned about the health impacts on their children. But I don't see the policies around fracking changing here anytime soon, because at the end of the day, I'm a pragmatist. It takes 102 votes to pass a bill in the state House and 26 in the Senate, and then the governor needs to sign it. And I don't think there are enough legislators who would vote for a significant change to the industry.
David Roberts
Right. So, for now, at least, balance of power-wise, the fracking industry and communities get what they want.
Leanne Krueger
For now, the oil and gas lobbyists have a lot of power in the capital. It is true that there are a lot of legislators who go home to districts where this is a significant portion of their local economy. Until those of us in the climate movement have a true transition strategy that shows people that they could get good, well-paying union jobs with benefits without a college degree, that would replace these jobs more quickly, I think there's an uphill battle.
David Roberts
Yeah, you know, you often hear from clean energy types that, like, even now, today, depending on how you classify things, clean energy, broadly speaking, employs way more Pennsylvanians than fracking, something like 100,000. But then, you know, you, like, dig down into those jobs and they're nothing like the kind of jobs you're talking about, for the most part. They're service jobs. There are some sort of temporary construction jobs, things like that. So, like, net-net, clean energy is already employing more people, but there are jobs and jobs.
Leanne Krueger
And in terms of political power, the environmental groups, I would say, are building power here in Pennsylvania. I'm very proud of our Blue-Green Caucus and a Blue-Green working group of labor leaders and environmental leaders that are actually really, truly finding common ground and advancing a collective agenda. I think that's where the hope is for the future in Pennsylvania, when we can figure out what delivers on jobs, what's good for the economy, and what's also good for the environment. But that's not what most average Pennsylvanians are thinking about right now. They're thinking about going to work and putting food on the table and getting their kids to school, and maybe they've got aging parents that they're worried about.
And so, I would say the issues that those of us in the climate movement think about are not the kitchen table issues that most Pennsylvanians are discussing.
David Roberts
Well, if you were advising Harris, then, because she keeps every time she brushes up against Pennsylvania, she runs into this dumb question. I mean, I don't know why she doesn't just say, "The president can't ban fracking. Next question." But, like, what would you tell her, her sort of approach or attitude about this? I mean, do you think she's more or less navigating it correctly?
Leanne Krueger
I think that's the right answer. I think this is not an issue that the President of the United States has power to influence, and there are many other clean energy policies that she can get involved in. I mean, what we've seen through the money that's been pushed out through the Inflation Reduction Act and that leading to real investment in clean energy and real jobs, and many of those being union jobs because of prevailing wage requirements, that's all very, very exciting and, frankly, much more impactful than getting caught in a gotcha question, which I think is what this is really about.
David Roberts
Yeah, yeah. Okay, so Dems have the House, barely. But they don't have the Senate. I think they're like six votes behind.
Leanne Krueger
No, there are three Senate races in play this year. If they win three, they tie, and then they come back, and the lieutenant governor, who is a Democrat, would be the tie-breaking vote. So, the Senate needs to win three seats to tie and four seats to have a majority.
David Roberts
So, it's at least in the realm of possibility this year, this election, that next year, you could keep the House and have a very, very narrow majority in the Senate and a Democratic governor. You could have one of those beautiful trifectas that Michigan gets.
Leanne Krueger
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, all the places that have amazing clean energy policies, also happen to have a Democratic trifecta, New Mexico.
David Roberts
And I'm guessing that's out on the edge of the kind of probability curve. Like, what's your feeling on it? I mean, it would take a little bit of a wave, wouldn't it? I mean, it would take a pretty big deal for that to happen. What's your sense of the possibility of that?
Leanne Krueger
Sure. So, I need to say that Governor Josh Shapiro reminds everyone constantly that we are the only divided legislature in the country.
David Roberts
Wow.
Leanne Krueger
So, Pennsylvania is the only state in the country that has one party in control of the House and one in the Senate, which makes governing here particularly challenging. And I am proud of what we have been able to get done so far. The House has passed 399 bills so far this session. Our session ends on November 30. It's a two-year session, and we're a full-time legislature. The Senate, before last week, had only passed 92. So, 75% of the bills that we have run out of the House, including clean energy bills, labor bills, reproductive rights bills, democracy bills.
David Roberts
I'm assuming you have one house and not the other, and the other is controlled by Republicans. I'm assuming you haven't been able to pass any kind of substantive climate and energy legislation.
Leanne Krueger
So, the big victory so far this year, and we go back to session on Monday, there's still time to get a few more things done, was the Solar for Schools bill, which creates a new funding mechanism and appropriates $25 million to start for school districts to implement a solar project that would then help to cover the school's energy process. Now, there are rural schools that are already doing this, there are suburban schools already doing this. And my colleague, Representative Liz Fiedler from Philadelphia, this was her bill but it was also the first victory of the Blue-Green working group, who's been working together for three years now on legislative priorities and Solar for Schools got done.
David Roberts
Is there a reason that Republicans in the Senate were amenable to this in particular?
Leanne Krueger
Because at the end of the day, when we needed to pass the budget and our budget — we were in a voting session all of June and the first half of July, I think July 11 was the day that we finished the budget — at the end of the day, with divided government, you need to have trades. And for Senate Republicans to get priorities through the Democratic-controlled House, every once in a while, they need to say yes to a Democratic priority. And so we were able to get some good things done in the budget, and we were able to get a couple of bills through as trades.
Solar for Schools, I would say, so far, this session has been our biggest environmental win.
David Roberts
Interesting, interesting. So it came down to horse trading and haggling over the budget, a familiar federal story as well. So in terms of clean energy on the ground, Pennsylvania is 45th out of 50 states in terms of the percentage of its energy that it gets from renewable sources. Josh Shapiro has said he wants to hit 30%. I think you're at 3% now, something like that. Shapiro has said he wants to hit 30% by 2030. But I'm just wondering how you have this old renewable energy mandate from years ago, that's like something negligible.
Leanne Krueger
The Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards, which are expiring soon.
David Roberts
Yeah, yeah. And I assume to pass a new renewable energy mandate, you've got to get it through the Republican Senate. So how, when you think about boosting the amount of clean energy in Pennsylvania, how, like, are there executive authorities that he has? Are there ways around? How do you think about chipping away at that?
Leanne Krueger
Well, our last governor, Governor Wolf, attempted to do that by signing Pennsylvania on to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.
David Roberts
All right, I remember.
Leanne Krueger
And after many, many years of litigation and many votes to repeal RGGI, it is still held up in the courts. And I don't think we're any closer now than we were when Governor Wolf first proposed it.
David Roberts
To joining RGGI, you mean?
Leanne Krueger
To joining RGGI, because he tried to do it as an executive action.
David Roberts
And that just didn't work?
Leanne Krueger
Well, the Republicans immediately took him to court. And again, there is still a court case pending. We're now in the next governor. There's still a court case pending on that. And actually, just last week, the Senate Republicans went back into session and voted on party lines to repeal RGGI again for, I don't know what feels like the dozenth time. So any executive action needs to be very thoughtful and probably needs the work to have gotten all the different sides on board so that there's not an immediate vote to repeal it.
David Roberts
And it's worth saying that like RGGI is. This is the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, the northeast states. It's like RGGI is not that, I mean —
Leanne Krueger
Radical?
David Roberts
All things considered, it's pretty mild. I mean, it's a very mild fee on certain kind of fuels that ends up actually producing quite a bit of revenue for the governments involved that they can spend on good things. But it's like, in terms of like reducing greenhouse gas emissions or really boosting renewable energy, it's pretty mild and marginal. And it's just like, you know, if that produces this crazy level of opposition, it's hard to imagine anything more ambitious.
Leanne Krueger
So I think things like pulling down as much of the Inflation Reduction Act dollars and deploying them to work and projects on the ground. When I sat on the Environmental Resources and Energy Committee, we were fighting, again, sort of a repeal type bill where there was a wind project, and there was a Republican legislator who was trying to preempt it, and that one also wound up going through the courts. But I think that there is enough opportunity that even without legislation, if we can direct the capital to the right projects — and again, I believe the Inflation Reduction Act unlocked a whole bunch of capital for the kinds of projects we haven't really had capital for recently — I think that is more realistic.
And at the end of the day, I'm a pragmatist. When I look at a bill, even if it's one that I am fully aligned with my values, if we don't have 102 votes for it in the House, it's not worth running.
David Roberts
Yeah. So in terms of IRA money, have you seen, because we've done several episodes here on Volts, and there's lots of talk in the clean energy world generally, just about the flood of sort of manufacturing investment that's coming in in the wake of IRA and CHIPS and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. I've seen all these maps of all these new projects, battery factories and etcetera, etcetera. Is that happening in Pennsylvania? Like, is the manufacturing money coming in? Are new projects getting started? And are they getting started in areas of the state where they might make a political difference?
Leanne Krueger
So pulling down and deploying federal money takes time. We saw some early and quick investments in things that are fairly easy, like electric vehicle infrastructure. So that is now being built out across the commonwealth. Frankly, the first IRA projects to get funded were things like roads and bridges. There was another bridge. Well, you may have seen that we have an interstate highway that had an accident.
David Roberts
And, yes, this is what made Shapiro's national reputation. He's like, "The bridge broke. I'm a fix it."
Leanne Krueger
Yep. So I drove over that bridge yesterday, and it is now open and expanding. And then there was another ribbon cutting on another bridge project in Philadelphia yesterday. And so I think we're seeing the money deployed in the projects that were more shovel ready, like roads and bridges and transportation infrastructure, but we are seeing the electric vehicle infrastructure being increased. And I know that there's a lot of conversations happening about manufacturing and scaling up existing producers and potentially attracting some new producers, but those deals take time.
David Roberts
Mm hmm. So do you think it's safe to say that in terms of the 2024 election, that surge of IRA money and surge of manufacturing money is probably not real enough, not really on the ground enough, not visible enough to make a substantial difference one way or the other politically?
Leanne Krueger
I think what the economics say versus what your average voter is thinking about are very different. Right. I mean, the research shows clearly that the economy does better under Democratic administrations. And yet if you poll this question, you will almost always hear a voter say that they trust the Republican candidate more on economic issues. Now, I don't know why that is true. I have an MBA in urban economic development. I ran for office to change how economic development helped and frankly, to make sure that there were more avenues for clean energy businesses and locally owned businesses in Pennsylvania.
I was running a nonprofit before I ran and got frustrated that our Department of Community and Economic Development was not putting the money in the right buckets. And I had a call with them for a project I was pitching, and they said, "Well, you're doing good work, but it doesn't fit in our boxes." And I ran for office to change the boxes. And so I think, again, what the reality is about how many projects have been funded and what else is coming online is very different from what the average person is thinking about.
David Roberts
Well, you know, I feel contractually obliged here to just put in my little thing that, like, probably some part of that is the fact that these rural parts of the state, rural parts of the country, have been entirely captured by a media apparatus that serves as explicit right-wing propaganda. I mean, they're all in that bubble now. So, like, manufacturing money could flood in down all around them and they would just probably never know because no one would ever tell them.
Leanne Krueger
But, David, it's not just the rural households that are listening to Fox News and Newsmax. In my suburban district, I can knock on a door and see it on the TV here, too.
David Roberts
Lord, that's just very disheartening.
Leanne Krueger
So I think, you know, people vote with their emotions. You know, it's not necessarily a rational choice. I do think that there are a lot of women who are terrified at how their reproductive rights have been rolled back that will be voting on a single issue this November. Consistently, polling is showing that that is a key issue. I think there are moms who are tired of hearing about another school shooting who will be coming out to vote to keep their kids safe. And at the end of the day, our job in government is to translate to people how what we're doing in our state capitol or in the US Capitol really impacts their lives. And again, I think that's one conversation at a time.
David Roberts
Yeah, well, I mean, sort of a related question is one of the political dynamics you see in Pennsylvania, and this, again, is not unique to Pennsylvania is that those coal producing regions that we were discussing earlier, they've been hurt by the decline of coal. Ironically, it's that fracked gas next door that did it, that killed the coal, although I'm not sure the people in the coal producing regions know that. But one thing you see is that those coal producing regions going more and more Republican, basically getting redder and redder as their coal jobs dry up. Is there any way to avoid that?
Do you think the state or federal government has done enough for those areas of the country that are losing those old energy jobs? Is there anything they could have done for those people that could have prevented this sort of radicalization that they seem to be undergoing?
Leanne Krueger
So I can tell you that my colleagues who serve in those areas, and again, there are still Democrats representing coal producing regions, and certainly a lot of Democrats representing gas producing regions, they don't think that we've done enough. They think we could do more. And they think that we have lost an opportunity with folks by frankly allowing this issue to be polarized, to be either/or, to be an east/west, to be an urban/rural. And I don't believe that any of those polarities are true. I was lucky enough to be seated next to a Democratic woman from Fayette in Greene county during my first couple sessions in the legislature.
And her district could not have been more different from mine in suburban Delaware county. And yet, hearing the stories of what her folks were going through and the issues that they showed up in her legislative office to talk about was probably the best education that I had as a legislator. Unfortunately, she has now retired. But I think we need to hold the complexity of all of it. And the reality is that Pennsylvania is an economically diverse place and we can't have an either/or strategy. We need an "all of the above" strategy.
David Roberts
Speaking of all the above, one of the big energy stories coming out of Pennsylvania just very recently is nuclear. Here comes Microsoft with, I don't even remember the number $1.4 billion or some utterly ludicrous amount of money that it's willing now to pay to start one of the Three Mile Island reactors back up. And nuclear is a big part of the Pennsylvania energy mix. What do you make of this? What do people in Pennsylvania make of this? Do you see some sort of like a prospect for kind of a nuclear revival, for other nuclear plants starting back up or not shutting down? What's your take on that?
Leanne Krueger
So I want to say that as a legislator, I am a generalist on many things and always learning on issues like nuclear and the impact and the history. I had a reporter call me last week when the story broke and asked who was against it. And five years ago, when there was another talk of a project to restart Three Mile Island that was going to require a significant influx of taxpayer dollars, there was a lot of opposition. It was seen as a taxpayer funded bailout. And at the end of the day, it didn't happen.
With this project where it's private capital coming in to add new nuclear capacity in a facility, in a reactor that's not currently producing energy, I haven't heard anyone who's opposed. Now, that doesn't mean that they don't exist. But the mainstream environmentalist groups that I've spoken to are cautiously optimistic. This is new nuclear capacity. So this is new carbon free energy that is coming online.
David Roberts
And it's worth saying. I'm sorry to interrupt it, but it's just worth noting here that when you look at Pennsylvania's sources of greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired power remains the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the state. So a big influx of new non-carbon power could have a pretty substantial role in reducing Pennsylvania's emissions.
Leanne Krueger
And again, David, most of the environmental experts who I talk to and follow have come to accept that we need nuclear as a transition fuel, that we just don't have the infrastructure to flip a switch and convert everything to solar and to wind and to, you know, whatever other renewable source you're thinking about, we're just not there yet. So nuclear is an important part of the transition, and we absolutely must learn from the history of Three Mile Island. People here in Pennsylvania and people who live close to that site have fear because of the accident that happened a couple of decades ago. So public safety has to be front of mind.
But I am not hearing opposition to this project in the way that we heard it five years ago.
David Roberts
You know, if, like, a company shows up at your door with a bag, bag full of $1.4 billion and says, "Hey, I would like to shower this on you and help you, you know, start a new power plant," kind of hard to see the downside.
Leanne Krueger
Well, again, except for the people who have real memories of public safety concerns, and those have to be addressed. They have to be addressed by the regulators. You know, we have to make sure that safety is front of mind. But the reporter who reached out to me was surprised that she couldn't find someone to speak against the project.
David Roberts
Are there other sort of shuttered nuclear facilities in Pennsylvania that might be sort of eligible for something like this?
Leanne Krueger
So, I don't know if there's anything that's ready to go. And I read an article yesterday that said that turning on a nuclear reactor is not the same thing as just flipping on a light switch. It will need a period of time to ramp it up again and to make sure that safety is front of mind. I know that there has been talk of adding new nuclear capacity or even smaller nuclear capacity. I don't know that any of those projects are, as, frankly, shovel ready as this one is.
David Roberts
Right. Okay. Well, I know you are in the trenches. It sounds like you've been in trench warfare —
Leanne Krueger
For about a decade now.
David Roberts
A decade, yeah. Probably as long as you can remember. But I'm going to ask you to do a little speculating here. In dreaming, let's just say, for the sake of funzies, that Shapiro's governor, you win those three Senate races and get your very narrow Dem majority in the Senate, and you keep the House — which, by the way, like, what are the odds on that?
Leanne Krueger
Depending on who you ask, about 50-50. Because so many races are tied. It's not just the presidential race that's within the margin of error. So many, again, we flipped the house by 63 votes. We may have multiple races that are almost that close again.
David Roberts
Oh, my God.
Leanne Krueger
And so, everybody in my world is working as hard as they can to make sure that we hold the majority, because, David, I served on the Environmental Resource and Energy Committee for seven years under a majority chairman who did not believe climate change exists.
David Roberts
Yeah, no fun being in the minority. That's a universal sentiment you hear from elected officials.
Leanne Krueger
We even had a hearing where the former chairman, majority chairman, brought in a climate change denier and created an entire hearing for this man to have a platform. Now, there was a professor here in Pennsylvania who was teaching a critical writing course, who had actually had his students study the book and rip apart his line of thinking. And so the professor sent me the class notes before that hearing a couple years ago, and I learned that the book was self-published. It was not peer-reviewed. There was really no empirical research. It was just a bunch of talking points.
David Roberts
This is also familiar. That's like the first ten years of my career.
Leanne Krueger
Yep. So I passed out the talking points to my colleagues on the committee who were allies and who also believed that climate change was a challenge. And we had a pretty fun hearing that day, but that's what we were up against. Now we have committee chairman who will run Solar for Schools, who will run bills to protect our air and water. And so everybody in my world is doing everything they can to make sure that we don't go backwards, because we just can't afford to.
David Roberts
So let's just say for fun that you run the table, that all these 50-50 races break the right way, you get the narrow Senate majority, you hold on to the majority in the House, and lo and behold, you have a trifecta come January 2025. Probably, I'm guessing most of you are so involved in the trench warfare that you have not had a ton of time to sort speculate about what you might do in that situation. But, like, is there something like a plan? Like, you know, like you saw, like Minnesota, you know, they got their very narrow trifecta, and they just went for it.
They just went nuts. They just absolutely passed stuff. Like, they clearly had a — they were ready to go when they got that trifecta. Do you Pennsylvania Democrats have something like a plan for what you would like to do if you had the power to do what you wanted to do?
Leanne Krueger
So we have spent so much of this session trying to hold the majority that every legislative victory, I think, has been a true miracle. And we've had many. I mean, we had significant public education funding in the budget this year. You know, we've had victories on a number of fronts that I think will change Pennsylvania for the better. But I can tell you the climate caucus has a bunch of bills ready to go.
David Roberts
Interesting.
Leanne Krueger
The Blue-Green caucus has a bill package of about a dozen bills that have the support of the environmental movement and the support of labor. Because in an energy producing state like Pennsylvania, I think we always need to have our labor partners at the table, and we get more done when we're working together than when we're pitted against each other.
David Roberts
For sure.
Leanne Krueger
And so those two caucuses alone have bills that have been written, introduced. Some of them have even passed through the House and are sitting in the Senate. Only one has made it over the finish line. But that could be the start of a very, very robust pro-climate agenda for 2025 in Pennsylvania.
David Roberts
Well, let's all just hold that in our heads as a torch. Final question, then. This is all very educational, although it has made my palms sweat.
Leanne Krueger
Welcome to my world.
David Roberts
Yeah, I know. Um, pulling the lens back. Big picture, it just seems statistically improbable that everything all the way top to bottom is so, so close. It's so 50-50. Like, do you see trends, demographic trends? Can you discern the state moving in one direction or the other, or do you really just anticipate it just like sitting here on the knife's edge year after year. How long can this go on? Do you discern a larger direction for the state?
Leanne Krueger
So I think, again, you mentioned the top of the ticket. We had two Democratic governors before that. There was a Republican governor. There was a Republican governor when I ran the first time in 2014 who lost to Democrat Tom Wolf. We have had Republican US senators in recent history. You remember the name Pat Toomey was in office here.
David Roberts
Arlen Specter. Am I making that up, too?
Leanne Krueger
Arlen Specter was a republican senator who then actually ran for reelection as a Democrat and lost his primary.
David Roberts
Right. I remember that.
Leanne Krueger
And so I think Pennsylvania is very much in the middle, and I am a Democrat who represents a district that still has more registered Republicans. And so I don't get reelected if I don't earn republican votes. Many of my colleagues are in the same position. And I frankly think that districts like mine keep us honest. It means that I need to keep my finger on the pulse of what people care about. And I have people who look me in the eye and say, "I don't agree with all your politics, but you helped me, and so you've got my vote."
David Roberts
And also, you've knocked on my door, like twelve times in the last five years.
Leanne Krueger
I have knocked on their door a lot of time. But you know what? I don't, traditionally when I'm doing a political knock, knock on the door of Republican super voters, because statistically, you know, when we're out knocking on doors, we're looking for persuasion.
David Roberts
Yeah.
Leanne Krueger
Yeah, but I know for a fact that there were people in 2016 and 2020 who voted for me and Donald Trump. And I am pretty sure there will be at least a couple of those people come this November. And so, you know, I think Pennsylvania is always going to be in the middle. We need to talk about policies that help everybody. I think we need to talk about issues that bring people together again. I think the coalition of labor movements and environmental movements is key to our success here in Pennsylvania. But I don't see us changing anytime soon, David.
I think we will be a swing state for the foreseeable future.
David Roberts
Good Lord. I don't know how you do it. I don't know. I don't know. My heart couldn't. My heart couldn't take it. I really, I have so much respect for.
Leanne Krueger
Well, I have to say that this work also brings me joy. And I know that early in the summer, you interviewed the founder of Climate Cabinet. There are groups out there who are helping us to elect pro-environmental champions. And that is what makes the difference. When I was elected nine years ago, it was not a top priority for the House Democratic caucus. There were more oil and gas influenced members than there were members who were talking about clean air and water. But that has shifted. I think we actually have a balance in the caucus that reflects the energy diversity of Pennsylvania.
And if we can come up with policies again that can get 102 votes in the House and 26 votes in the Senate and earn the Governor's signature, then there's a lot of positive potential in Pennsylvania. So thank you for showcasing the groups that are helping us to elect more allies, because that makes my job easier.
David Roberts
Awesome. Well, thank you so much, Leanne. This is hugely, hugely educational and inspirational. Thanks so much for walking us through it all.
Leanne Krueger
Well, thank you so much for keeping your eyes on Pennsylvania. You know, keep a close eye on us for the next six weeks.
David Roberts
Oh, none of us have any choice, so we definitely will. Thank you.
Leanne Krueger
Thanks so much.
David Roberts
Thank you for listening to Volts. It takes a village to make this podcast work. Shout out, especially to my super producer, Kyle McDonald, who makes my guests and I sound smart every week. And it is all supported entirely by listeners like you. So if you value conversations like this, please consider joining our community of paid subscribers at volts.wtf. Or leaving a nice review or telling a friend about Volts, or all three. Thanks so much, and I'll see you next time.
A closer look at Pennsylvania, the swingiest of swing states